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Woodmead Energy Services

UK Generation by Fuel Type December 2011 to July 2012

Wind Generation by Fuel Type Update August 2012

This update relates to webpage https://woodmeadenergyservices.com/renewable-energy/198-2/ which analysed UK generation by fuel type between September and December 2010, it identified that wind turbine power, on average, satisfied 1.77% of the National Grid demand during the 3 month period, which was about 25% of the metered capacity (2430MW) at that time and less than the 1.78% through the French interconnector. Additionally, during this period Renewable UK claimed that operational turbine capacity was 5204MW, but it is only possible to analyse data from metered sources and until total transparency of data is available, calculation of UK wind energy will have to be based on National Grid metered data! However, the conclusion was that the intermittency of wind means it is essential that substantial conventional generation remains available to satisfy periods of peak demand/low wind speed and de-commissioning of power stations without reliable alternatives will put the availability of the UK electricity supplies at risk…

The following chart illustrates the UK Average Generation by Fuel Type between the 18th December 2011 and the 17th July 2012, it identifies that average wind turbine generation during this period has increased to 3.5%, coal fired generation 43%, up from 33%, has taken over as the greater supplier from combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) at 27%, previously 44% and the Nuclear share has risen from 18% to 21%. Also, import from the French interconnector has risen to 2%, with the Dutch interconnector also supplying 2%.

CCGT

OIL

COAL

NUCLEAR

WIND

PS

NPSHYD

27%

0.006%

43%

21%

3.5%

1%

1%

51172591

10491

80606945

38854860

6562280

1703061

2020465

OCGT

OTHER

INTFR

INTIRL

INTNED

INTEW

TOTAL

0.01%

0.249%

2%

0.001%

2%

0%

MWh

19703

470957

4182973

1149

3503368

0

189108842

The latest chart above is produced from the Elexon Neta BM Reports with total wind turbine metered capacity of 4686MW, Renewables UK claim to have total capacity of 6854MW, suggesting that there is 2168MW of unmetered wind turbines connected to the National Grid. Further data shows an average capacity factor through this period of 28.8%. However, data coincidental to “Indicative Triad Information” illustrates that at 17:00 on the 16th January 2012 with a GB Demand of 54468MW, wind turbine generation was 1% of demand 593MW or 14% capacity factor. During the third winter highest demand, wind generation fared better; providing 3% of the 58405MW GB Demand equal to a 36% capacity factor (1581MW).

Further analysis by filtering data, highlights some interesting facts relating to capacity factor and is illustrated in the table below. The period between the 18th December 2011 and 17th July 2012 covers 212 days 17 hours. Please note that the sum of the days in the table represents an amalgamation of data and will not equal the days in the period!

Capacity Factor

Hours

Days

Percentage of   Period

80%

0.5

0.021

36%

44

<2

30%

47

<2

<20%

2284

95

45%

<15%

1794

75

35%

<10%

1162

48

23%

<5%

475

20

9%

It is evident from the table above that 30% average capacity factor claimed by Renewables UK was only achieved for less than 2 days out of the 212 days data and output was less than 20% capacity for a substantial proportion of the period.

Therefore the conclusion must be drawn that, due to the inconsistency of wind, this technology will never provide reliable renewable energy by demand.

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